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Sports Betting Articles
Brickyard 400: The Australian Open Of NASCAR
by Christopher Harris
It's the AFC Championship Game of stock-car racing.
Okay, no, that's not exactly right.
It's the Australian Open of NASCAR.
Kind of.
Anyway, the Brickyard 400 is a big deal. The vestigial home of auto racing in America is the Indianapolis Motor Speedway (or "Brickyard"), where the Indy 500 has been run for 745 consecutive years. Or something like that; I'm not much of an open-wheel-racing guy. Beginning in 1994, though, the real drivers came to this place (all right, that's a ridiculously provincial thing to say, but hey, I'm writing about stock cars...), and this midsummer event quickly became the second-most-prestigious on the circuit, behind only the Daytona 500.
Now, don't get me wrong: the actual racing at this track (when it comes to stock cars) really isn't that great. It's a massive 2.5-mile venue (built in 1911), but its rectangular shape and relatively shallow-banked turns (only nine degrees, putting it roughly on par with, say, the one-miler in Phoenix) mean that Nextel Cup drivers won't be able to go all out heading into the turns. Open-wheel Indy cars have lots more downforce than the relatively bulky NASCAR cars, and thus can zip in and out of the turns and not lose much speed. Not so, Nextel Cuppers.
As such, it's extremely hard to pass during the Brickyard 400, and we're likely to see the same kind of long green-flag runs without much change in running order as we saw two weeks ago in Pocono, and three weeks ago in New Hampshire. It's unfortunate, because this'll be one of the year's most highly anticipated events, and probably get a relatively big viewing audience for basic cable (a measure of how much excellent racing NBC expects the Brickyard to generate is the fact that it's putting this race on TNT). Nevertheless, the fact that Indy shares some characteristics with Pocono (huge straightaways, shallow corners) means many teams will run the same car this week as they did two weeks ago, and it gives us more data points when considering who we should pick. Tony Stewart won an emotional victory here last year after coming 7th at Pocono; Jeff Gordon won here two years ago after finishing 5th at Pocono; Kevin Harvick won here in 2003 after coming 12th at Pocono; and Bill Elliott won here in '02 after winning Pocono the previous race. Who should we pick this weekend? Read on, gentle car aficionado.
Last Race: All races should be as easy to handicap as the most recent Pocono race was. Denny Hamlin easily cruised to his second consecutive Pocono victory, winning me a straight-up bet of 1/6th of a unit at +454, and Kurt Busch finished second, easily outdistancing the man I picked Busch over in a head-to-head bet for 1 unit, Dale Earnhardt Jr. For the week, then, I netted a positive 1.04 units, and for the season, I've profited exactly 16 units.
Take Jeff Gordon (+960), 1/6th unit. The pretty-pretty Gordon has won the Brickyard four times in 12 tries (which is how many NASCAR races have been held here); a 33% success ratio at any track is pretty great. Gordon was very stout finishing third at Pocono two weeks ago, and one would imagine he learned a lot. Gordon is precariously in the Chase for the Championship right now, at ninth in points, but he'll have to produce over the next month to ensure his spot. I think it can happen with another Indy win; while everyone will be talking about Tony Stewart (+908) as the race favorite, I think Gordon can take heart in the fact that this isn't a true "downforce" track (a la Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta, Michigan, et al), which is the kind of place where Gordo continues to struggle. He's got it in him to contend this week.
Take Kasey Kahne (+516), 1/6th unit. Kahne qualified well at Pocono a couple weeks back (third), but had problems throughout the race, and came 31st. However, I'm taking Kahne based on the fact that he's finished second and fourth here in this two previous Brickyard attempts. Remember: this is a favorite track of #9's predecessor, Bill Elliott (+2794 as part of Field), who won here in '02. And there's no question that one of my primary concerns from '05 is now basically resolved: the Dodges can pretty well hang with Chevys and Fords, especially at non-cookie-cutters.
Take Kurt Busch (+2315), 1/6th unit. Busch hasn't shown much in a Brickyard; he's come 18th, 10th, 7th and 41st in his four tries at this track. But I love the fact that he came in second in both Pocono races, and the fact that he came here this weekend and posted the fastest practice lap, and then went out and qualified third (Kahne will start fourth). I'm still mightily tempted to take Denny Hamlin (+898) because if there's any equivalency at all between success at Pocono and success at Indy, one would assume Hamlin would be a shoo-in to contend this weekend. The reason I'm picking Busch over Hamlin, though, is twofold: first, this is Hamlin's first Brickyard, and there's a lot of pressure. Second, Hamlin showed his great Pocono strength before the race prior to each of his victories by winning the pole in each and practicing about as fast as anyone else; this weekend, Hamlin practiced 10th and qualified 14th. That's not terrible, of course, but I don't think it qualifies as dominant. I may regret it, but I'm taking Busch instead. (Sunday Morning Note: Busch wrecked his primary car in a post-qualifying practice, which explains why the odds are so high here. I'm not allowed to change my pick here, but you are; taking Hamlin might be kinda smart at this point.)
In this week's head-to-head matchup, take Gordon over Stewart (+105), 1 unit. I hate to do it, because Smoke could easily win this race, but there aren't a lot of other choices out there. Kurt Busch would've been a nice bet over his brother Kyle, but since he's starting from the back in his backup car (the car that cruised in Pocono is officially deceased), I'm too wussy to pick him. So it's Gordon over the defending race winner; the good news is that he'll start in the middle of the field, while Stewart will start toward the back. The bad news is that starting toward the back doesn't usually matter to Smoke. Both men talked confidently about their cars on Saturday evening, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them dueling for the win. My main thought here is that guys like Carl Edwards (+1267) and Clint Bowyer (+2794 as part of field), who Stewart wrecked at Pocono two weeks ago, will do everything in their power to not see Stewart win. We'll see if this four-time-winning underdog (Gordon) can come through.
About the Author
Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com
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