The Total Picture

By Rob Veno

In this week's column, let's take a look at the Chicago Bears and how to approach them from a totals perspective come playoff time.  It's obvious right now that Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman has more ability than previous starter Kyle Orton to lead a downfield passing game that can legitimately threaten the defense.

In the past two weeks, Chicago has posted 24 and 16 points, resulting in one OVER and one UNDER. It would stand to reason that as Grossman becomes more acquainted with his offensive mates, he will deliver more regularly.

Media hype has already started anointing Chicago as better equipped and more dangerous to make a Super Bowl run with Grossman at the helm.  Many now feel Grossman now makes the Bears a higher scoring team and it will have them looking twice now at perhaps playing their games OVER the total.

Last Sunday's number jumped from an opener of 31 to a closing total of 33.5 and it still went OVER by more than a touchdown. In retaliation to the public's new perception of Grossman and the Bears offense, the oddsmakers figure to hike Chicago totals a couple of points.

This Sunday's game with Minnesota is meaningless, but it will be interesting to see where they set this total.  After watching Grossman and seeing and hearing the stir he's creating, I'm beginning to wonder if there might not be some upcoming playoff value in playing the contrarian role and taking the Bears UNDER.  I truly believe that Grossman and the Bears look better in the passing game on occasion, but the facts are that he threw for just 166 yards on 11 of 23 passing against Green Bay.

The week before against Atlanta, he was only 9 of 16 for 93 yards, making his combined numbers 20-for-39 for 258 yards. Will those type numbers really increase Chicago's point production come playoff time?  Carolina, Tampa and Washington will all be tough for Grossman to dissect.  Imagine the sophisticated, complicated looks defensive coordinators are now going to throw at him.

While I am sold on Grossman as being the quarterback who next season will increase Chicago's offensive production, I'm not sure that the buzz around him right now is going to lead to 20 points per game in a playoff atmosphere.  Let the Rex Grossman hype continue, let the market inflate the Bears playoff total just enough, and point me squarely in the direction of the UNDER.   

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