When is No Recent Workout A Good Sign In Horse Racing Handicapping?

By Bill Peterson

Nothing instills more confidence in a handicapper who is serious about his or her horse racing handicapping than seeing a good recent work. Good works and recent works are an indication of good form and serious intent by the trainer. But the problem with a good recent work is that every one who reads the form can see that work and the horse is usually bet down accordingly.

While good handicappers won't take a short price on a horse, no matter how good it looks, the crowd will pound it down until there is no value in the bet. As we all know, the key to making a profit is shopping for value in bets, not just spotting fit and ready horses.

That may be the key to finding a horse that is ready to win. Fit and ready doesn't mean having a good recent work, it means a horse that is in good form and can win at the class level the trainer has chosen for it.

So what is the significance of no recent works? Obviously, especially in the cheaper races, it may be an indication of a horse that is lame or sore. On the other hand, it may mean the horse is ready, but prone to lameness and injury so the trainer is trying to quickly get it into a race and doesn't want to risk using up the horse's limited resources on a morning work. How can you tell the difference? That comes down to two factors in your handicapping. First, know the trainer. If you don't know what that conditioner does with his or her horses, how can you possibly know what the intention is for the horse. Here are a few examples.

Some trainers will condition a horse with a series of works and races until the horse is ready to win and then drop it slightly in class to make sure it can handle the competition. There are a few trainers however, who will condition a horse in the same way but hold it back, not asking for its best race until they feel it is ready to win and has reached its maximum potential. The latter will actually enter a horse in a race that is of a higher class and those trainers do often win with that tactic. Those bets are often good if the crowd hasn't gotten wise to that move. But no matter how often you see that trainer pull that move, it is still tough to bet on a horse moving up in class, especially if the conditioner has been using races to get the horse ready. That is often a move done by a betting stable, a stable that specializes in making a part of their income through the betting windows. You must know your trainers to spot that one, but it is one of the best bets in racing.

Finally, on the subject of cheaper races and horses, don't forget that sometimes a trainer manages to sneak a work in when the clocker doesn't catch it, or may even ship the horse to a farm with a track and work it on the sly. If you know the horse has won before without showing a good recent work, or it is one of the trainer's tricks, then don't be afraid to take it at a good price.

The companies that provide forms and past performances often assign a number to each horse to indicate their estimate of that horses ability. Every year, after the Breeder's Cup and other big races, they tout how well they did predicting winners with their special number. It sound impressive until you realize that the horses they pick usually stand out anyway. It is easier to spot form and understand that a horse is well meant in the top grades. You are dealing with the best horses and trainers in the country. Works are usually impressive and the trainer is obviously trying to win the prestigious race for the big money owner and prestige, not to mention the huge purse. The only time a work is significant in the big time is when it is a stinker or the clockers notes say the horse struggled or looked awkward.

There are times when a workout is really significant and at first doesn't appear all that different than the others. It is based on other factors in the horses lines. For information about works and trainer moves read True Handicapping. Combined with a good visual method like Ladder Handicapping. It can point out some very good bets that are over looked by the crowd because they fly below the radar and just aren't all that obvious.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie Workout and get the truth.