The 80 - 20 Rule And How You Can Profit By It
By Ed Gordon
Regardless of what profession or sport you are in there is one fundamental truth that each holds in common. The top of each profession or sport is dominated by only 20% of the total number of participants. By contrast 80% of the participants fail to rise to the top of their chosen profession or sport.
So how can you apply this knowledge to horse racing?
Back the Best
If the top of any profession or sport is dominated by 20% of participants we should be able to make use of this information in our betting strategy. How you may ask? Simple, we concentrate on the top 20% of trainers, jockeys, owners and horses.
Top 20% of Trainers
Go to the Racing Post statistics page. Print off the Trainer Season Statistics - British flat. Now take a look at the top ten named trainers. What strikes you at first glance?
Well what you should notice is that not all the top ten ranked trainers are in profit. Why is this? It's because the table is ranked by prize money. In fact at the time of writing this article only one trainer in the top ten is actually in profit. That trainer is John Gosden and he has managed this by having a very healthy 27% strike rate. But that may not last.
Backing all of John Gosden's horses is not the answer. What you need to do is keep a close eye on all trainers who maintain a 20% plus strike rate throughout the season. It is from this pool of trainers that most of your ammunition will come from. Unless of course you want to lay some of those trainers whose strike rate lies below the 20% cutoff point.
One small word of warning. Don't back blindly. Horse form still has to come into consideration especially where you have more than one top rated trainer in a race. Remember that the 20% in this instance refers to 20% of a trainers own horses winning. That means that they will lose 80% of the time with their horses.
Top 20% of Jockeys
For jockeys things work a little bit differently. Some jockeys are retained and are thus restricted from riding freelance which disallows them from many good winning opportunities. Get to know these jockeys the stable and/or the owners they ride for. Take note of the top ten jockeys in the table. You will notice that because jockeys are ranked by the number of winners they have, that they are more likely to show positive returns from backing them.
But you need to take care when backing the very top jockeys, such as Niall Callen, Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer as more often than not the price of their mounts are squeezed downwards due to public overestimation of the horses chance. This can mean that even though a top jockey like Ryan Moore has a strike rate of 21% at the time of writing this article his return to a £1 is a whopping loss of £32.18.
Take note of all the top jockeys but also note those jockeys who receieve less rides but maintain a strike rate of over 20% as many of them can be profitable to follow especially when they combine wit trainers who have a high strike rate. but once again be careful of following blindly those jockeys who have a high profile. You can literally follow them over a cliffs edge and lose a lot of money to boot.
Top 20% of Owners
Owners are similar to trainers in that they are ranked by prize money. You need to concentrate on strike rate. Owners with powerful stables are inclined to be wealthy enough to be able to buy the best horses. This does not mean that they are guaranteed to win, but they certainly have a better than fair chance.
take ote of horses owned by breeding studs like Cheveley park or by large operations like Godolphin or the Aidan O' Brien operation. These type of operations aim high with their horses and are more likely to be in the winners enclosure than most. Just keep an eye on the stats and you won't go far wrong.
Top 20% of Horses
This is a very simple thing to check. Just add up all the runs and divide them into the number of wins to get a true %. Then add up all the placed runs and divide them by the total number of runs. This will give you a fairly accurate estimation of the horses ability. Then you should note the conditions for those wins and places, paying particular attention to distance, course and ground conditions. Secondary considerations are number of runners, stall position, weight and pace tactics. Reference the time of the race and compare it with the course standard. This information along with trainer, jockey and owner stats, will help to define for you the particular chance a horse may have in any given race.
Top 20% of Sires
The best sires will often transfer their best qualities to their offspring. That at least is the theory. It doesn't always work though. The best that we can do is work out the stats for any sires offspring under a variety of distances, ground conditions and age categories. There are no definitive answers to be found, but more often than not a sires stats can give you a decent pointer in the right direction especially in the case of horses with limited form and who are trying a new distance and /or different ground conditions than it has previously experienced before.
Interpreting the stats
Stats are one of the most important tools available to the punter. Knowing your form and the associated statistics will invariable place you right were you need to be. Using the 80/20 rule will help to put you directly into the thick of the action with access to the best possible selections.
A word of warning. Blips do occur. Stats can be misleading occasionally. Blindly following the stats can lead to poor decision making and ultimately to the poor house. Remember that statistics will only put in the right region, they do not guarantee a profit. But by correctly using your stats you will definitely improve your strike rate and your profit margin.