Aintree Day One Preview

By: Matt Bisogno

Aintree Day One Preview: The Calm Before The Storm...After Cheltenham and the obvious lull that follows, the UK jumps season really only has one further hoorah. That, of course, is the Grand National and the three days of jumping ballyhoo that supports it. (Apologies to fans of the Whitbread/ BetFred Gold Cup, but that is a jumps race on a flat card!)This humble scribe has to concede to not being a big fan of the Aintree Festival, with the notable exception of the big race itself. My rationale is simple: horses are primed specifically for the Grand National, but very few horses have been targeted for the supporting races.Just look at the headlines in the Racing Post today: "Black Jack Steps Into Last Chance Saloon". This is my point. This race has never been BJK's target this season. He is running here to try to regain some of the lustre which has been tarnished with two successive vanquishings in top company. Frankly, the horse is down on confidence and has it to prove against the best.If you bet him at around 2/1, then good luck. He might win, but I'd much rather look elsewhere.The other problem at this time of year is that many horse are 'over the top': they've had enough racing and need a break. In short, they're knackered.For this reason, horses can often run real stinkers at Aintree. And finally, Cheltenham form doesn't always translate to Aintree form. This is because of the reasons already outlined but also due to the marked difference in track constitutions.Cheltenham is a testing track with a stiff uphill finish that finds many out. Aintree is a flatter, more galloping track better suited to long striding big horses.So for these reasons I am strong on the chances of none of the horses mentioned in this post, and I hope you'll forgive me for not having the courage of my convictions til Saturday.2.00 Liverpool HurdleAll six of these contested the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, where Inglis Drever came out on top against a staying on Mighty Man. Blazing Bailey was an honourable third, with Black Jack a faller and Lough Derg and Fire Dragon tailed off.As mentioned, I'm happy enough to pass over BJK, as he is a classic talking horse for me. I think Blazing Bailey is finished for the year (and he's had an extremely creditable year - I'm looking forward to him challenging for top stayer next season).This leaves a straight fight between the first two at Cheltenham, and I reckon Mighty Man may just reverse the placings this time. Inglis Drever almost always hits a flat spot in his races and needs some pretty fierce encouragement to get the job done. On this less testing track, he might get left behind.So I reckon MM to beat ID, but no bet for this lily-livered scribbler.2.35 Betfair BowlA disappointing field of five for this £85k prize, and the Gold Cup second Exotic Dancer lines up as favourite.I mentioned when this horse ran at Kempton that I don't believe a speed track favours him, and I stand by that comment here.But how to oppose him? I happily ignore Our Vic, who is as frustrating as he is long in the tooth (and ran in the 'swerve the Gold Cup' race at Cheltenham). I also cross out My Will, who I believe is just not good enough.That leaves me with two. Turpin Green, who is the only horse (aside from Kauto Star) to beat Exotic Dancer this season (albeit in a bizarre three horse race first time out), has a cracking chance today of collecting a big pot.But the one for me is the Evan Williams trained State Of Play. He's a really progressive animal and has been lightly campaigned this season, so no 'over the hill' excuses will be tolerated. He ran a very acceptable sixth in the Gold Cup and will take a lot of passing today. He also won a race over the course and distance last year, so there are no doubts about acting at track or trip. Decent bet material.3.10 4YO Novices' Hurdle.What can I say? I LOVE KATCHIT. There, I've said it now. If it wasn't so late in the season and the Alan King horses weren't running a tad below expectations, I'd be wading in with the hobnail booties to bet like the man I aspire to be. Alas, it is late in the season and the Alan King horses are running a tad below expectations. Consequently, I will be having an interest bet and riding it home for all I'm worth.If there's a gamer horse in training, I'm not aware of it. This horse has been underrated all season because he was a mediocre flat performer. But, guess what? We're not in a flat race. And we haven't been in a flat race all jumps season. That's why they're called hurdle races.Katchit is simply a much much much better hurdler than he is flat horse, and a better hurdler than many of the better flat horses he's raced against. His form has been cribbed more times than is warranted, and I really hope he rubs the snobs' and "form experts'" noses in the excrement of their final losing bet against this horse.Rant over, soap box away, I think Katchit will win. But it probably isn't a one horse race, and Triumph Hurdle winners have a poor record here (except Detroit City last season).Dangers for me are Degas Art, the only horse to beat Katchit over hurdles (in a small field race at a Northern track) and Grand Bleu, who the legendary Francois Doumen has brought over from Paris. He doesn't generally pop over for a weekend in Liverpool unless there are pots to plunder and this one will be well forward.But Katchit, please, for me. Did I mention I love this horse?!3.45 Hahahaha-Hunters ChaseHere we go again... My regular reader (hello again mum!) knows my thoughts on amateur rider races. Best left to amateur bettors, lets say. However, I do like to play in Hunter Chases because the horses are used to being given zero assistance from their pilots and make allowances. They are typically old and slow (the horses not jockeys, though now you mention it...), and could run the race competitively without a single human intervening and making life tricky for them.So two and three quarter miles over the National fences, and 27 runners. But most of them have no hope of getting round, let alone winning. Lets try this approach:- Cross out any horse who has fallen in the last two seasons or who has fallen in this race before (10 down, including Drombeag and Scots Grey - careless?!)- Cross out anything with an official rating of less than 115 but leave in horses without an official rating .<115 are not going to be good enough today. (8 more down, including Pak Jack - very careless?!)- Cross out anything 40/1 or bigger. Very unlikely to win. (3 down, obviously no surprises)- Cross out seasonal debutantes for races under rules. (2 down, Alphazar and Eskimo Jack)All this crossing out leaves us with a shortlist of four: Holy Joe, Le Passing, Ned Kelly and Royal Hector.Split your stake four ways and bet them all - you might be on one that gets round, and it might get round in front.If forced to nominate from this quartet, I'll side with Le Passing, the best of these on official ratings.It will definitely be an entertaining race!4.20 Handicap ChaseAfter the carnage of the Hunter Chase comes the relative calm of the Red Rum Handicap Chase.Its not an easy race to call the winner in, and I clearly will not win a prize for incisive commentary with a statement of the glaringly obvious like that. To the contenders:Andreas made a monkey of me at Cheltenham, when he finally managed to win, while I was drunkenly shouting in Ladbrokes "He can't win, he can't win". Eejit!Nevertheless, I'm happy to put that victory down to a (very impressive) flash in the pan and let others punt him today.Hasty Prince is interesting: he was second behind Andreas and, on a normal Andreas day, would have won. He also has a number of other second's to his name this season. Normally I'm wary of these types, but this one looks to be game enough, and is a placepot banker.Further down the lists, Bambi De L'Orme and Magic Sky have been backed, so are clearly expected to run decent races, and don't rule out last year's winner Jack's Craic.Indeed, I'm going to place (very) small each way investments on Hasty Prince and Jack's Craic.4.55 All age novices' hurdleThe betting has this as a three horse race between Liberate, Tidal Bay and Wins Now. I backed all three at Cheltenham and so nearly got paid out on the Tidal Bay. (Liberate was also second at Cheltenham, at a respectable distance behind Katchit - did I mention I love that horse?!)There are question marks about the trip for Liberate (too far?) and Tidal Bay (not far enough?) and also the ground for the latter.Wins Now looks set to improve the step up and on form would have to find only a few pounds to win this.He looks a decent bet to me. (I called him as one to follow in my Cheltenham roundup, so can hardly desert him now!!)Of the others, My Petra is 40+ on betfair and may reward a throwaway bet. Certainly these are fair odds.But Wins Now for me - a race to bet in.5.30 Handicap HurdleErm, good luck.... If you haven't won by the time the 4.55 has been run, I suggest you keep your powder dry for tomorrow.All of the imponderables mentioned at the top of this post apply here, and more!There are any number of horses who could win, and stakes should be minimised if you insist on playing.There's been money for a few, including Self Defense and Absolut Power at big prices. On the basis that neither name is spelt correctly, I'll pass them over. (Regular reader knows I can't work out handicap form!)Dr Newland must be prescribing something to his horses (excuse the woeful pun there), as they are performing miraculously this season. Personally, I reckon Burntoakboy has been pumped full of uppers, downers, poppers, pullers, liveners, kickers, flyers, jumpers, razzle dazzlers, steroids, haemerrhoids, asteroids, pentapeptides, high fives, and Five Alive. But, whatever, my schoolboy conjectures, he's game and able and will run well.The favourite, Laouen, has all the usual bounce questions to answer and anyway might not be good enough. Place lay of the day for me.There's also been money for Acambo, Roll Along and Shatabdi, and these all emerge for battle from savvy stables. This just further illustrates what an absolute no bet race this is for me.McCain's like to get one (oven) ready here (I'm really sorry about that desperate chip gag), so look out for Ice Tea and Our Jasper, both of whom could run well.Indeed, considerably more in hope than expectation, I will name these two plus the 'doped up to the eyeballs' (allegedly - no lawyers required!!!!!!) Burntoakboy, as my three against the field. I won't be betting, and will not be (too) upset if one of them wins. Surprised, but not upset.Remember, dear racing fans, that Aintree is a three day fest. Your week can be lost on the first day but is unlikely to be won on the first day. My advice is to tread very carefully through the minefield of Thursday in Liverpool.GO GO GO KATCHIT!!!!!Best RegardsMatt

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